I started researching about Roulette statistic after begin hit with a long steak of loses. I had faith in playing the Roulette game to win. The Roulette itself is pure random game. The study of Roulette statistic is also known as Gambler’s Fallacy. Studying the pattern of the Roulette outcome in the hope of projecting future outcome.
In this article, I am sharing with you my findings base on the outcome of a placing a Dozen bet. Please always keep in mind that these statistic are past results. While they can gave an overview of what the outcome pattern can be like, it is by no means a way to project what the next spin result will be.
Please keep in mind to play Roulette in a responsible way.
Background Introduction
I started learning Roulette from my mentor Winchester on the 10th July 2020. Winchester is also my cousin. I can still remember it was a holiday, the Singapore election 2020 day. We met in the evening time at a hawker centre for our dinner after casting our vote. He has shared with me that night how he has been making his fortune through the game of Roulette. He had actually started growing his money on gambling activity since his teenager in the year 2002 using his school pocket money. He first started this investment journey with his soccer betting strategy, and discovered later on that Roulette actually has that same mechanism and flexibility which allows him to apply the same soccer betting strategy that he consistently grow his money from. For the past 18 years, he practise and improve himself through the mistakes he had made. I was blown away by his history. He taught and demonstrated a live session to me. I was convinced he is doing something right, because of his consistent success that he had.
The following day I immediately opened an online account to try it out for real. I wanted to use a capital of $200 to start my account. Winchester knows that I will not survive my capital. He propose to combine our capital to play. So he invited his close friend Chris, and together we raise a capital of $600. I used this fund to play. Within 4 days, 4 short games, I have successfully won an amount equivalent to the capital of $600 that we have invested. The method works. It was so simple, I thought to myself. We distribute the winnings and celebrate.
I quickly invited my cousin and convinced him to join us with additional capital of $200. Unfortunately, my very first round of bets, I have lost all of our capital of $800.
My faith in the method was still strong. I was curious and kept asking Winchester, wanting to learn exactly how he executed his game. And in the process of learning, he taught me about the concept of dragons, which is technically known as Gambler’s Fallacy.
We managed to get more friends onboard, and eventually Winchester name our group as Team-R.
Gambler’s Fallacy
Playing Dozen on a Roulette wheel, I can see a consistent pattern of outcome. By continuous betting on a particular Dozen, the Dozen will eventually be hit. This way of thinking is also known as the Gambler’s Fallacy.
Gambler’s Fallacy is a thought of predicting the outcome that has not been out for a continuous number of rounds. We also call this as the dragon. Long dragons refers to the number of rounds the outcome is not out yet. The longer the dragon, the more likely the chance of the outcome happening will be higher. This is the mentality of someone who believe in Gambler’s Fallacy as a way to place their next bet. Thinking that the probability of the outcome will be higher when it has not been out for a consecutive number of rounds.
The outcome is typically uniformly distributed, with each Dozen/Column probability close to 33%, and Odd/Even Red/Black close to 49%.
As you can see from a typical statistical summary of any Roulette game, the distribution is typically very evenly distributed.
I was determined to study the statistically pattern of the dozen on the Roulette game. I went online to collect the historical data of a Roulette game. Then do an excel sheet to analyses the length how a dragon for a dozen bet.
For 13 consecutive days, I can see a pattern from my data collected. Pretty amazed by the consistency.
I was wondering if the universe that we live in, is really controlling such an evenly distributed outcome. Is the randomness that we know, not as random as we thought it to be? I throw this question on my Facebook post.
A scientist friend of mine responded to my post. I got my aha moment from her. Her perspective about randomness is that randomness is real. “Outcome is random. Statistics are just tool we use to give us an ability to predict this randomness.“
Roulette is ultimately still a game of random. While statistic that are collected helps us see a better picture or pattern from the nature world of randomness, we have to keep in mind that Roulette is still very much a game of random. The past results has no influence over the result of the next ball throw.
So one point to keep in mind is to always play the Roulette game responsibly. Do not assume that it is not possible meet a long losing streak which can blast your capital. There is always that possibility of losing everything. This is why in Team-R we learn more than just method and mathematics of the Roulette game. We also learn money management, and the business aspect of Roulette. Through the 20% Roulette, 80% Business concept to continuously derive our income stream just like how the Casino made their profit. Casino do not solely rely on the Casino games to make their profits.
Pseudo Probability
Another important idea besides Gambler’s Fallacy is pseudo probability. Gambler’s Fallacy holds the concept of probability when the game is played in a continuous manner. Pseudo probability is a concept of disrupting this statistic probability.
The statistic result is a collection of the continuous outcome from a table game. The collected result shows a pattern which we use to project the distribution of the outcome. Pseudo probability is a concept which add more random to this statistical pattern. For example, by not playing the game continuously (taking a break in between the ball spins), or change of a Roulette table to play. This makes the statistic pattern even more random, hence help to keep ourselves away from the statistical projected outcome.
For example if I can see that in every 5 hours of Roulette spins (or 500 spins), historically there will be 0 to 2 of such a very very long dragon that can wipe up all my capital, I would like to ensure that I do not play for too long on any particular table.
For my case, I would find a reason to change to other new tables, thinking that the Pseudo Probability can help me steer away from this luck of being wipe out.
How the Statistic was collected?
Before I present my statistic, I would like to show how my data was collected. This is important as it can give you the faith behind the data that I have collected. The consistency of the data collected, the familar parttern of the random spins outcome, and hence the conclusion that I had made for myself.
While practising Roulette everyday, I would took the opportunity to collect the past 500 results of a particular Roulette table. For a consecutive of 13 days, I collected that set of 500 results for each day. The data was collected from the Casino Evolution gaming platform.
Collecting data was pretty simply. I simply spend a couple of minutes to key in the 500 numbers onto my spreadsheet. Then let me spreadsheet summaries the pattern that I was wanting to pick up from that group of spins.
I started researching about this Roulette statistic after being hit with a long steak of loses. I still had had faith in playing the Roulette game to win. The Roulette itself is pure random game. I understand. The study of Roulette statistic is known as Gambler’s Fallacy. Studying the pattern of the Roulette outcome in the hope of projecting future outcome.
In this section, I am sharing with you my findings base on the outcome of a placing a Dozen bet. Please always keep in mind that these statistic are past results. While they can gave an overview of what the outcome pattern can be like, it is by no means a way to project what the next spin result will be.
I took note that each game takes about 40-50 seconds. This means that the outcome of this set of 500 spins outcome probably span over 5-6 hours of Roulette spins. This means that the analysis presented is roughly representing 5 hours duration of continuous gaming on a particular Roulette table.
These data were entered into my spreadsheet for analysis. It allows me to see a pattern to support my Gambler’s Fallacy idea, the ability to best guess what a next outcome will be.
Please keep in mind to play Roulette in a responsible way.
Roulette Dozen Statistic
The historical outcome of the spins are data entry onto my spreadsheet. They are tabulated with formulas to help me compute the length of the dragon. The length of the dragon representing the number of consecutive rounds of any particular dozen not appearing in the Roulette spin.
For example if the result outcome is 5 0 6 26 30 8 27 16 7 25 3 10, looking starting from the 1st number 5, we can see that the 2nd Dozen only starts to appear on the 8th rounds. 2nd dozen has not been appearing for the past 7 rounds. So this is a level 7 dragon detected. From the number 6 to number 8 is a level 2 dragon from the 1st dozen.
On the left most column represents the length of the possible dragon levels (consecutive rounds of dozen not appearing) from 1 to 32.
The second column represent the statistic (500 outcome) collected on the 25th July 2021. The third column is another set of 500 outcomes collected on the 26th July 2021, and so on…
Most dragon level is typically falling between length 1 to 3. On the data collected on the 25th July, there are a total of 338 dragons (156+111+71) out of a total of 488 dragons that has a dragon length of 3 and below. This is about 69% of the entire 500 spin of Roulette.
Now that you understand what it mean by a dragon, you can now see that a dragon can be as long as 32. This means that a particular dozen has not been appearing for the consecutive 32 rounds. This could happen but it is pretty rare. Base on the statistic that I have collected over 13-15 days, a dragon of level 20 or more can happen about once every 5 hours (500 spins).
I have actually stop collecting data after my 13rd day because I can clearly see a consistent statistical distribution from my data. I also did a random record on the 13rd May and 14th Jun. The number distribution still looks pretty the same distribution pattern.
When I was doing the analysis, I was also wondering if placing bet on a Column instead of the Dozen would make any difference. Using the same historical data that I recorded on the 25th July, I can see that the column seems to have a longer dragon length compare to the Dozen. But this isn’t true if I analysis the dragon’s length between the Column and the Dozen for the consecutive 13 days of historical data. My conclusion is that they do not make much difference. There is not much difference between a Column and a Dozen bet.
Comparing the outcome between the Dozen and Column bet
These data are from the same 25th July data. They are analysis in 3 perspective, namely Dozen, Column and assuming that the Dozen numbers are evenly spreading out on the Roulette wheel.
The Dozen statistic are on the 3rd column in the blue color cells.
The Column statistic are on the 2nd column in the green color cells.
The 1st column statistic is assuming the group of numbers are evenly spread out on the wheel. The reason I do this analysis was that I was thinking if the 12 numbers are evenly spread, it could result in an even shorter dragon’s length.
From this 500 spins on the 25 July 2020, you can see that the longest dragon for a Dozen bet was 18, for a Column bet was 20, and if the numbers group were evenly spread it has a shorter dragon length of 15.
While my data shows a better outcome (shorter dragon) from evenly distributed dozen on the wheel, the hypothesis of a shorter dragon from a more evenly spread group is found to be false. This is my conclusion.
I have attached the statistic which was capture on the 27th July 2020. This is an extreme example of 22 consecutive spins and not hitting one of an evenly distributed group.
Looking at all the 13 days of data, my conclusion is that there are no difference placing bet on a dozen, column or evenly distributed numbers. The distribution of the dragon’s length is roughly the same.
From the statistic over a span of 13 days, I can see that there is about a dragon length of 20 or more on a particular table within a period of 5 hours.
At the end of the day, these statistic is still just a Gambler’s Fallacy. The outcome of any spin is independent of the previous spin.
While the statistic can provide us with an idea how a typical outcome can turns out, it cannot predict if the next spin is going to be a winner.
Check out this page for the mobile Android Apps that I am using to tracking dozen cold number.
Why Gambler’s Fallacy matters?
The nature of Roulette is still random. So why bothers to even study the statistic, and practise Gambler’s Fallacy?
There are basically 2 schools of thought. One side thinks that Gambler’s Fallacy is real, while the others simply don’t care and treat the Roulette wheel as a truly random number generator. Nothing wrong with either thoughts.
I started learning Gambler’s Fallacy, digging into the statistic, wanting to have an edge over the Roulette game, thinking that I can somehow predict the outcome of the next ball spin.
After practising playing using the Gambler’s Fallacy method, I realised one benefit that it brings. It actually provides me with the emotional stability to execute my betting. It is like a guide book, which tells me where I should be placing my bets and how much I need to place my bet. In a sense, it like a mentor guiding me where to place the bet. A set of pre-define rules. I would not feel lost or stress-out during the game. It is a SOP (standard-operating-procedure) that I follow strictly.
Gambler’s Fallacy gives player a sense of safety that they already did their best, to give themselves the best statistically probability that they could. When I have already done my best, whatever outcome at the end of the game, I would have no regrets, no bad feeling of myself, and no putting of blame on myself when the game is lost. I have already executed the best bet that I had planned for.
The Roulette games become more logical and less emotional. Fewer upsets, clearer state of mind, lesser addiction, lesser impulse gambling behavior etc…
To me, Gambler’s Fallacy is less about predicting what the next winning bet is, but is about keeping my emotion stable, keeping myself calm and clear. Knowing what is my next steps of action to take. This is my learning after practising for some time.
This benefits is more obvious when I show new novice players how to play Roulette. They were able to execute it much better than when I first started. Because I can see that the standard-operating-procedure actually removes the emotional in them. They simply execute like a robot. A betting system that anyone can simply follow and execute.
I have been practise Gambler’s Fallacy using mobile apps to track cold numbers on a Roulette game.
And with this insights, I have also developed my own mobile APPs, an improvement version, a bet placement tool for myself to place my bet in a Roulette game. This can help me improve my efficient playing the game.
Contact Me
The money management is the most important part of playing Roulette. It can help to ensure that we will always have the capital to keep on playing. As what I have learned from my mentor in Team-R, 20-80 rule, 20% Roulette, 80% Business.
You are welcome to join our Team-R discord community for free.
Simply email me at mail@sg-best-1.com, I can send you an invite link to join our Team-R community.
Team-R also conduct online classes on getting success with playing Roulette, the science of Roulette. If you are interested, can let me know too.
Any questions you have, feel free to email me. I will try my best to explain and improve the write up on this page. Thank you.
Other Related References
Related Articles online for playing Dozen on Roulette.
- https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php/topic,109.0.html
- https://www.roulettestar.com/guide/probability/